Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Decision Tree Analysis

Choosing Between Options by Projecting Likely Outcomes

Decision Trees are excellent tools for helping you to choose between several courses of action. They provide a highly effective structure within which you can lay out options and investigate the possible outcomes of choosing those options. They also help you to form a balanced picture of the risks and rewards associated with each possible course of action.
You start a Decision Tree with a decision that you need to make. Draw a small square to represent this towards the left of a large piece of paper. From this box draw out lines towards the right for each possible solution, and write that solution along the line. Keep the lines apart as far as possible so that you can expand your thoughts. At the end of each line, consider the results. If the result of taking that decision is uncertain, draw a small circle. If the result is another decision that you need to make, draw another square. Squares represent decisions, and circles represent uncertain outcomes. Write the decision or factor above the square or circle. If you have completed the solution at the end of the line, just leave it blank.

Starting from the new decision squares on your diagram, draw out lines representing the options that you could select. From the circles draw lines representing possible outcomes. Again make a brief note on the line saying what it means. Keep on doing this until you have drawn out as many of the possible outcomes and decisions as you can see leading on from the original decisions.

An example of the sort of thing you will end up with is shown in Figure 1:

 
 

Once you have done this, review your tree diagram. Challenge each square and circle to see if there are any solutions or outcomes you have not considered. If there are, draw them in. If necessary, redraft your tree if parts of it are too congested or untidy. You should now have a good understanding of the range of possible outcomes of your decisions.

Evaluating Your Decision Tree
Now you are ready to evaluate the decision tree. This is where you can work out which option has the greatest worth to you. Start by assigning a cash value or score to each possible outcome. Estimate how much you think it would be worth to you if that outcome came about.

Next look at each circle (representing an uncertainty point) and estimate the probability of each outcome. If you use percentages, the total must come to 100% at each circle. If you use fractions, these must add up to 1. If you have data on past events you may be able to make rigorous estimates of the probabilities. Otherwise write down your best guess.

This will give you a tree like the one shown in Figure 2:


 

Calculating Tree Values
Once you have worked out the value of the outcomes, and have assessed the probability of the outcomes of uncertainty, it is time to start calculating the values that will help you make your decision.

Start on the right hand side of the decision tree, and work back towards the left. As you complete a set of calculations on a node (decision square or uncertainty circle), all you need to do is to record the result. You can ignore all the calculations that lead to that result from then on.

Calculating The Value of Uncertain Outcome Nodes
Where you are calculating the value of uncertain outcomes (circles on the diagram), do this by multiplying the value of the outcomes by their probability. The total for that node of the tree is the total of these values.

In the example in Figure 2, the value for 'new product, thorough development' is:

 
 

0.4 (probability good outcome) x $1,000,000 (value) = 

$400,000 

0.4 (probability moderate outcome) x £25,000 (value) = 

$20,000 

0.2 (probability poor outcome) x £1,000 (value) = 

$400 

+ 

$420,400

 
 

Figure 3 shows the calculation of uncertain outcome nodes:


 

Note that the values calculated for each node are shown in the boxes.

Calculating The Value of Decision Nodes
When you are evaluating a decision node, write down the cost of each option along each decision line. Then subtract the cost from the outcome value that you have already calculated. This will give you a value that represents the benefit of that decision.

Note that amounts already spent do not count for this analysis - these are 'sunk costs' and (despite emotional counter-arguments) should not be factored into the decision.

When you have calculated these decision benefits, choose the option that has the largest benefit, and take that as the decision made. This is the value of that decision node.

Figure 4 shows this calculation of decision nodes in our example:


 


 

In this example, the benefit we previously calculated for 'new product, thorough development' was $420,400. We estimate the future cost of this approach as $150,000. This gives a net benefit of $270,400.

The net benefit of 'new product, rapid development' was $31,400. On this branch we therefore choose the most valuable option, 'new product, thorough development', and allocate this value to the decision node.

Result
By applying this technique we can see that the best option is to develop a new product. It is worth much more to us to take our time and get the product right, than to rush the product to market. It is better just to improve our existing products than to botch a new product, even though it costs us less.

Key points

Decision trees provide an effective method of Decision Making because they:

  • Clearly lay out the problem so that all options can be challenged
  • Allow us to analyze fully the possible consequences of a decision
  • Provide a framework to quantify the values of outcomes and the probabilities of achieving them
  • Help us to make the best decisions on the basis of existing information and best guesses.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

What are the key lessons to entrepreneurship?

What are the key lessons to entrepreneurship?


Lesson Plans To Entrepreneurship

Our Lesson Plans To Entrepreneurship are practical, and the information comes directly from the "front-lines" of business battles. Our approach is aimed at creating knowledge, skills, and awareness in the critical aspects of funding, launching, and growing a new business venture and then leading it to a successful harvest.

Introduction
The greatest challenge a new business venture faces is getting the right things done in the right order. Knowing what to do, and in what sequence, is critical, especially since the entrepreneur has very limited time and resources. Starting companies is much like launching a rocket: If at launch you're just a fraction of a degree off, you could end up a thousand miles off course downrange.
 - Creating Your Start-Up Strategy

Part I: Charting a Course in New Business Venturing Today
This section opens with a discussion on how the rules of entrepreneurship have changed, and it introduces entrepreneurial management practices and how the business plan guides you through uncertainty. It provides a historical background on entrepreneurship along with discussions of the high-tech revolution we experienced in the late 1990s, and it closes with a discussion on the risk capital industry.
 - Discussions of Entrepreneurship
 - Discussions of the High-Tech Revolution 
 - Discussions of Risk Capital

Part II: Creating and Engineering Your Vision
This section focuses on opportunity analysis, industry analysis, and crafting a winning business strategy based on a sustainable competitive advantage. It also presents guidelines on assembling a winning venture team and the importance of critical capital resources.
 - New Business Venture Opportunity and Analysis
 - Crafting a Winning Business Strategy and Sustainable Competitive Advantage
 - Starting with the Right People and Organization  
 - Gathering and Allocating Critical Capital Resources

Part III: Launching and Getting Traction
This section presents market entry strategies, focuses on creating viable marketing and sales strategies, and introduces concepts on managing a rapidly growing venture. It closes with discussions on creating and managing the networked enterprise and going global.
 - Creating Your Market Entry Strategy
 - Creating Your Marketing and Sales Strategies 
 - Managing the Rapidly Growing Venture 
 - Creating and Managing the Networked Enterprise 
 - Creating the Global Business Strategy

Part IV: Reaching Escape Velocity
This section reviews winning strategies for financing the emerging growth venture, issues with valuation, and the financials required for investors. It provides the groundwork for creating an exit strategy.
 - Financing the Emerging Growth Venture
 - Creating Your Exit Strategy and Exit Goals

Part V: Getting Your Venture into Orbit
This section addresses how all the elements of the business are put together in a business plan. It also discusses presenting before investors and negotiating the best deal. The section closes with a discussion of deal killers and other practices used by entrepreneurs to sabotage an otherwise winning business plan.
 - Putting It All Together and Getting Financed

What is an entrepreneur?

What is an entrepreneur?

Entrepreneur is a word borrowed from the French words entreprendre, "one who undertakes"—that is, a "manager." In fact, the word entrepreneur was shaped probably from celui qui entreprend, which is loosely translated as "those who get things done." In the early eighteenth century, a group of thinkers called the Physiocrats surfaced in France around a school of new economic theory. They were the first proponents of laissez-faire and opposed all government intervention in industry, especially taxation. Their doctrine was that the economic affairs of society are best guided by the decisions of individuals.

One of the most famous among them was Richard Cantillon. In a paper he worked on between 1730 and 1734 and that was later published in 1775 as Essai sur la Nature du Commerce en General, he introduced the concept of entrepreneur. He developed these early theories of the entrepreneur after observing the merchants, farmers, and craftsmen of his time. Jean-Baptiste Say, a French businessman turned economist, followed Cantillon with his Trait d'economie politique in 1803. His work commented on the theory of markets and how the entrepreneur is involved in this transaction of goods for money.

Defining the Types of Entrepreneurs
We use a broader definition and scope of entrepreneurial activity, segmenting all entrepreneurial activity into seven types of entrepreneurs: small business and lifestyle, franchise, professional fast growth and serial, corporate, creative disrupters and innovators, extreme, and social and nonprofit.

1. Small Business, Lifestyle, and Family Entrepreneurs
A small business entrepreneur is an individual who establishes and manages a business for the principal purpose of furthering personal goals. They comprise around 90 percent of all entrepreneurial activity in the United States. The business may overlap with family needs and desires. These ventures merely provide a reasonable lifestyle for the founding entrepreneurs. Their average net worth is less than $6 million, and they choose to stay small. These "lifestyle ventures" typically fall below 20 percent annual growth rates, their five-year revenue projections are below $10 million, and average net income does not exceed $2 million. Retailing is one of the few sectors where entrepreneurial activity is extensive. Each year, some 60,000 new retail businesses are started. The National Retail Federation in Washington, D.C., reports that 1.3 million retailers or over 95 percent of all retailers own and operate a single store.

2. Franchise Entrepreneurs
Franchising started in the 1840s and became an American institution. One out of sixteen workers is employed at a franchise, and franchising accounts for nearly $1 trillion in retail spending.19 Franchising is where a franchisor is offering a franchisee exclusive rights in return for their payment of royalties and conformance to standardized operating procedures. Franchising represents a great opportunity for entrepreneurs. An entrepreneur buying into a franchise increases the odds for survival to as much as 90 percent over starting up independently.

There are three basic types: product franchising, like automotive dealerships; service franchising, like Century 21; and business format, like McDonald's. Since there are some 2,300 franchises to choose from, we suggest reading books like Ann Dugan's Franchising: The Complete Guide to Evaluating, Buying and Growing Your Franchise Business. Dugan will help you to find the right franchise and to negotiate the franchise lease; it also provides sample franchise agreements.

3. Professional Fast-Growth and Serial Entrepreneurs
Fast-growth ventures have been called "the backbone of the U.S. economy." Numbering less than 350,000, they create about two-thirds of all new job growth. Professional entrepreneurs lead these ventures, which typically employ between 20 and 500 people, have sales growth of at least 20 percent each year for four straight years, and target five-year revenue projections between $10 and $50 million. Less than 10 percent of all start-ups make it to this level. As can be expected, it is well documented that these high-growth ventures receive great investor interest. A small business entrepreneur will typically retain 100 percent ownership, since the primary motivation is financial independence and control. In contrast, serial entrepreneurs are comfortable with relinquishing control to "a more traditional chief executive." They also accept dilution because "taking significant outside investment" allows them to create a big venture very quickly. Basically, the serial entrepreneur creates a venture, builds it up to a certain point, and then walks away to start another.

4. Corporate Entrepreneurs and Intrapreneurs
A driving force for the corporate world is "innovate or die." As Drucker says, "Any organization that believes that management and entrepreneurship are different, let alone incompatible, will soon find itself out of business." Entrepreneurship is beneficial for managing established businesses but not easily maintained. Large, mature conservative businesses need entrepreneurial leadership so they can perform the continuous renewal that has become a requirement for survival. For example, managers at 3M have set a long-term objective of achieving double-digit sales growth through innovation.

To survive, companies must "strive for a continuing change in the status quo." The National Science Foundation estimates that about $300 billion is spent annually on R&D in the United States, leading new opportunity analysis and roadways to entrepreneurial transformation. Microsoft spends almost $5 billion on R&D annually. In 2002 Microsoft began a five-year, $2 billion investment on the Xbox, a "stripped down personal computer in a VCR-sized electronics box" for home gamers.24 Four veteran game developers led Microsoft's "Project Midway." They "were intrapreneurs, doing the same thing as entrepreneurs except inside a big company."

The concept of corporate entrepreneurship has been around for at least twenty years. Broadly speaking, corporate entrepreneurship (also called intrapreneurship) involves the developing of new business ideas and the birthing of a new business activity within the context of large and established companies.

5. Creative Disrupters and Innovators
Shawn Fanning, the creator of Napster, appeared on the covers of Time, Fortune, and BusinessWeek before he could legally buy a beer. In 1994, John Doerr, a venture capitalist at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, met a twenty-three-year-old Marc Andreessen, who confidently declared that "his software would change the world." Their company, Netscape, went on to a record-shattering initial public offering in 1995. Like Edison in search of the electric light bulb, seeing only a better way to illuminate a room, these entrepreneurs are a rare breed, living on the creative edge. Most often, these brilliant "entrepreneurial-engineers" look to technology to solve problems in ways that "unlock value." They are visitors from the future, living among us here and now. They have an optimistic passion for an idea that borders on the embarrassing and a restless urge to make a difference in the world. They bring us innovations that will have a deep impact on how we live, work, and think in the decades ahead.

6. Extreme Entrepreneurs
Entrepreneurship is the last frontier where someone can explore individuality and pioneer a dream. In his work Isolated State (1850), German economist Johann Heinrich von Thunen described the entrepreneur as part "explorer and inventor." Long before America's Silent Army, Christopher Columbus pitched his dream to Queen Isabella in Seville, Spain. His "discovery" of America in 1492 brought new prosperity to Spain, as it soon became a world economic superpower. John Sutter was even called a "soldier of fortune." It was near his lumber mill on the American River in California that gold was "discovered" in 1848, about 150 miles from Intel's headquarters in Santa Clara. Today's extreme entrepreneurs are Formula-1 race car drivers, North Atlantic fishermen, lumberjacks, and businessmen like Ted Turner and Richard Branson, the billionaire who started Virgin Records and Virgin Atlantic Airlines. Branson says, "Being an adventurer and entrepreneur are similar. You are willing to go where most people won't dare."

7. Social and Nonprofit Entrepreneurs
David Packard, co-founder of Hewlett-Packard, believed that giving to the local community was important. Social and nonprofit entrepreneurs who pursue endeavors for the benefit of society have existed since ancient times. In fact, the word philanthropy is derived from a Greek word that means "lover of mankind." Today it is believed that entrepreneurism and innovation can also help "spark positive social change." The Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation is doing just that. Currently with over $1 billion in assets, its mission is to make a difference by encouraging entrepreneurship in all areas of American life. The Price Institute for Entrepreneurial Studies works to further the understanding of the entrepreneurial process. By generously providing grants to leading academic institutions, the Institute works to stimulate MBA programs and curricula development, encouraging and supporting students with entrepreneurial aspirations.

Category: Entrepreneurship, All Questions

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Influencing tactic number 1.

Influencing tactic number 1.

Introduction

In a change process or just in your everyday work, managers often come across situations where they need support of people or groups around them.

 You need to influence people in order to get what you want, and in order to do this effectively you need to be organised in the way that you think about the situation and plan your actions.

 We use this technique all the time, both as managers and as part of our coaching programme - it's simple, easy to use and very powerful.
This technique works best with a small project, or a discrete part of a bigger project.

Influencing plan.

Think about what you want to achieve, and who is important in helping you achieve it.

Sketch out a matrix (see our downloadable word template) with each person who can help under the headings "supportive", "agnostic" and "currently against".

Then for each person, put in a few phrases that cover their position and why they hold this view. The second of these is crucial, it's why they think that's important to understand.


 

  • Try to see it from their point of view
  • Is your idea a threat to them?
  • Are they too busy to deal with your idea
  • Does it fit in with something they wish to achieve?
  • What are the benefits to them?

Then, for each person think about concrete action that you can take to either encourage them to support you further, or to bring them closer to supporting you or not opposing what you want to do. Such actions might be:

  • A quick chat about your idea to sound them out further
  • Check if they're going to the meeting where this is to be discussed
  • Express interest in one of their projects and try to tie it in with yours, it could be mutually beneficial.

Actions

Think about when you're going to do these things and make sure that you do it as soon as possible. Do not be shy, but generally its best to avoid asking people straight out, especially if that puts you in a position of owing them a favour.

After you've talked to people, go back to the why question and think again now that you've got a better idea of what's going on in their heads.

The Action Principles®

   Put purpose, passion, prosperity and peace into your life by dedicating yourself to self-improvement and service to others. As a parent, teacher, coach, counselor or manager, use the Action Principles® as a tool to start positive conversations. Now, a worldwide movement for positive change, the Action Principles® are available in over 20 languages. Your success is our business. By reading and incorporating the Action Principles® into your daily life, you have everything to gain.

   Read the Action Principles as a
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Maximise your marketing spend

Maximise your marketing spend and get the best out of your existing customer

What percentage of your marketing efforts or budget is spent on customer acquisition and how much on sales to current customers?

Many small businesses focus on the first sale and spend too much time and money trying to find new customers.

Three reasons why this is flawed:

· Acquiring a customer costs 5 to 10 times more than retaining one (eMarketer, 2002)
· A 5 percent increase in retention yields profit increases of 25% to 95% (Bain and Company, 1990)
· 20% of your customers bring you 80% of your revenue (the old 80/20 rule which still holds)


There's gold in them thar hills -

...but first you've got to get at it. How? You need to:

1. Collect customer data and use it intelligently
2. Have different strategies for each broadly identifiable 'type' of customer, spending time and money proportionate to the value of each segment
3. Keep an ongoing, appropriate dialogue with customers  such as individualised offers, timely reminders of your products or services, requests for feedback
4. Understand what causes customer attrition and address it
5. Keep the contact with past customers by forging alliances with businesses offering complementary services or products


Turning information into knowledge

If you're not already doing so, it is vital to capture your customers' contact information. Be prepared to give them a reason, even an incentive to do so - they are doing you a favour after all. The simplest and yet the most powerful information to ask for is an e-mail address. You can always ask them more detailed questions later - it's essential to discover their needs and also their potential value to you.

Don't ask the same old questions just because they are what forms always ask for. Take time crafting them so that end up with not just information, but knowledge.

Customer data should be kept on a secure database, and you should have a privacy statement available for customers to read at the point they give you their data. It's crucial to familiarise yourself with the 8 principles of the UK Data Protection Act 1998 - a good self-assessment guide can be found at http://www.dpr.gov.uk/notify/self/front.html

Transactional information is just as important. You may already have a huge amount of information about your customers which is practically ready-to-use. Starting and keeping a dialogue going with customers after their purchase requires forward-thinking and a truly customer-focused approach, asking yourself questions such as:

- What other issues can I help them with?

- If they bought x from me six months ago, what might they be interested in now? Who do I know who supplies that and are they a potential partner?

- What's the best way to appeal to Type X customers, and what's best for Type Y?


Not all customers are created equal

A commonly-quoted statistic is that on average people have to be exposed to your message seven times before they respond to it.

Some advertisers (and, I'm ashamed to say it, e-mail marketers in particular) have taken this to mean that you should hit people over the head again and again. Whilst that can work for certain markets and products, it's crude and works on the old 'interruption' marketing principle that you have to force people to pay attention.

When it comes to talking to those who are already your customers, go easy on the hard sell. You have already won them over, don't irritate them by being too in their face.  Try instead to find out more about their needs so that your dialogue with them is appropriate.

Here's an example:

I'm a customer of stationery suppliers Viking Direct, and have been for some time. When I need stationery, I get it from Viking. They work hard at personalising their mailings based on previous purchases ('Dear Robin, we notice that you haven't ordered Manilla Envelopes A5 since February!') which I admire.

What I don't like is their habit of sending a new catalogue every week - in its plastic wrapping. I don't even bother to unwrap it, it goes straight in the bin. I know that there's a major new catalogue every six months, and that's the one I refer to. When I tap the details into their website, I sometimes get a lower price, which is great. But all those interim catalogues (perhaps 30 or 40 each year, I haven't counted) are a huge waste of resources. To be honest, if there was another comparable supplier I might change allegiance, but I haven't found one yet. So I go on putting up with the endless mailings and catalogues.

Viking have made the mistake of not categorising me correctly - they have made some assumptions based on transaction data, but know very little else about me. If they did, they would probably find there were thousands of others like me who would respond better to a quite different approach.


"Don't you want me?" - Why customers quit

Viking aren't going to go out of business if I decide to go to another supplier. But if there are thousands feeling the same way, or if I were one of their top 20% of customers, then it would be an issue.

On average, you lose 20% of your customers each year. 82% of those leave because they are unhappy. I've never complained to Viking about the catalogues - but apparently I'm not alone in this. The Strategic Planning Institute based in Cambridge, Pennsylvania conducted a study that uncovered some interesting facts:

- The average business never hears from 96 percent of its unhappy customers. 

- Of customers who have a complaint, 95 percent will do business again if the problem is resolved quickly.

So the lesson is: encourage customers to complain, or at least tell you what's working and what isn't. And respond promptly to customer enquiries. An August 2002 survey of US businesses found that 60% of customer e-mails were responded to within 24 hours (38% of those within 6 hours). In the UK we've got a long way to go before we achieve even those figures, and they're hardly stunning.


Putting it into action

Even if you regard your product or service as a 'one-off' you can still continue to earn off the back of previous sales - by partnering with other businesses offering complementary services or products. In this way you're anticipating your customers' needs and providing them with additional services. And even if they don't buy anything else from you, they may well be impressed by your customer care and refer others.

Here's an example. A ladies' clothing retailer has a premium range of jackets or suits. When each is sold, the salesperson asks if the purchaser would like to be a member of their Priority Club - invitations to view new ranges, exclusive offers, etc - for free. (This makes a nice change from the usual 'would you like to apply for a storecard?') All they need to supply is name and e-mail address, and the sales person notes the item sold and the size. In addition to sending out Priority Club mailings, the retailer can use this information, for example, to offer individual customers deals on end-of-range or exclusive items in her size.

A professional services provider is in an even better position to mine customer data, since he or she is likely to have full contact details, a record of which services were bought and when, and far more 'face time' with the customer than a retailer usually gets. In this situation there is no excuse for not building up and acting on this sitting goldmine of information. (Hairdressers, solicitors and estate agents take note!)

It makes sense to ensure you don't let sales slip through your fingers having paid all that money to attract a new customer. You get a better return for your marketing spend if you nurture your existing customers rather than continually going after new ones. All it takes is a strategic approach, a customer-focus and creative thinking.

 
 

ROBIN HOUGHTON (http://www.robinhoughton.com) advises small businesses and non-profits on how to make the most of their
marketing budget, specialising in online marketing. She has over a decade of experience in the sports industry and international marketing and was Nike's first UK Women's Marketing Manager. With a masters degree in Digital Media, she writes for a variety of offline and online media.

SWOT analysis

Inroduction

SWOT is a frequently used management tool, useful for reflection, decision making and appraising options. It is particularly useful because of it's simplicity, the way in which it takes seconds to set up, and can be easily explained to others and therefore used as a group exercise. The simplicity of the idea belies how easily it can be extended and built on.

How to use it

The central idea is to take whatever you're wishing to consider and to look at it in terms of 4 areas:

Strengths - what does this idea have as advantages? What does it bring to the organisation (or yourself?) What other things are linked to it that would be advantageous?

Weaknesses - What are the intrinsic problems with the idea? What are the associated costs (financial, resources, management time etc)

Opportunities - What avenues could this open up? How does this idea fit with the existing strategy, or could it bring new ideas into the ongoing strategic development? The opportunities part should be those things outside the actual issue, and will often be outside the organisation itself

Threats - What are the dangers of adopting this approach? How will others see the change?

Brainstorm around these themes for a few minutes - it doesn't matter really if some things go in different or multiple categories, the important thing is to get the ideas out there and work through them.

Once you've got your Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats worked out, you can begin to consider if the Strengths and Opportunities outweigh the Weaknesses and Threats. You may see that there is an immediate threat which means that the idea is not viable, but try to think a little deeper to see if the idea can be changed in some way to minimise this threat.

You may move on to using another decision making tool to help you further in identifying the way forward, or you may see things that have to be adopted as first steps before the idea can be adopted. Alternatively you may be comparing two options and have a better idea of which is the more appropriate choice.

Situations where you might use SWOT

A story about SWOT

John is the Development Director of a housing association. He has limited funds for new developments, but is approached by a firm of architects who have drawn up plans for some new houses on a piece of land near to his area. John isn't sure whether this would be a good idea or not, so he uses SWOT to help him clarify his thinking about the proposal.

He comes up with

Strengths
20 new houses would bring additional income
It would fit well with a larger development which is coming to completion
A small scheme could be developed quickly

Weaknesses
He's not sure about the quality of the work of these particular architects
It would cost a lot of money from reserves to finance the scheme

Opportunities
It would look good for John to have found this new development and maybe help his career
20 new houses would help with the ever expanding waiting list for houses
It might be good to work with a new firm of architects - maybe he's been relying on the same couple of firms too much

Threats
The Housing Corporation would not fund the scheme at the moment
The owner of the land and the architects might put up the price

John thinks about the situation a bit more and the next day shows the SWOT analysis to one of his Development Officers.

She sees some other factors and between the two of them they decide that weaknesses and threats are not outweighed by the strengths and opportunities. So they decide not to go ahead, but realise that this process has helped them think about how they use architects and other consultants.

John calls the firm of architects who approached him, explains that he will have to decline but offers to put them on the tender list for the next development. That way he keeps his options open on the site and gets the opportunity to try working with a new firm of architects.


HTML 4.01 Specification


 

HTML 4.01 Specification

W3C Recommendation 24 December 1999

Table of Contents

  1. About the HTML 4 Specification
  2. Introduction to HTML 4
  3. On SGML and HTML
  4. Conformance: requirements and recommendations
  5. HTML Document Representation
    - Character sets, character encodings, and entities
  6. Basic HTML data types
    - Character data, colors, lengths, URIs, content types, etc.
  7. The global structure of an HTML document
    - The HEAD and BODY of a document
  8. Language information and text direction
    - International considerations for text
  9. Text
    - Paragraphs, Lines, and Phrases
  10. Lists
    - Unordered, Ordered, and Definition Lists
  11. Tables
  12. Links
    - Hypertext and Media-Independent Links
  13. Objects, Images, and Applets
  14. Style Sheets
    - Adding style to HTML documents
  15. Alignment, font styles, and horizontal rules
  16. Frames
    - Multi-view presentation of documents
  17. Forms
    - User-input Forms: Text Fields, Buttons, Menus, and more
  18. Scripts
    - Animated Documents and Smart Forms
  19. SGML reference information for HTML
    - Formal definition of HTML and validation
  20. SGML Declaration of HTML 4
  21. Document Type Definition
  22. Transitional Document Type Definition
  23. Frameset Document Type Definition
  24. Character entity references in HTML 4
  25. Changes
  26. Performance, Implementation, and Design Notes

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Nonlinear Regression *

Nonlinear regression is a method of finding a nonlinear model of the relationship between the dependent variable and a set of independent variables. Unlike traditional linear regression, which is restricted to estimating linear models, nonlinear regression can estimate models with arbitrary relationships between independent and dependent variables. This is accomplished using iterative estimation algorithms. Note that this procedure is not necessary for simple polynomial models of the form Y = A + BX^2. By defining W = X^2, we get a simple linear model, Y = A + BW, which can be estimated using traditional methods such as the Linear Regression procedure.

Implementation

  • Can population be predicted based on time? A scatter plot shows that there seems to be a strong relationship between population and time, but the relationship is nonlinear, so it requires the special estimation methods of the Nonlinear Regression procedure. By setting up an appropriate equation, such as a logistic population growth model, we can get a good estimate of the model, allowing us to make predictions about population for times that were not actually measured.
  • An internet service provider (ISP) is determining the effects of a virus on its networks. As part of this effort, they have tracked the (approximate) percentage of infected e-mail traffic on its networks over time, from the moment of discovery until the threat was contained. We can use Nonlinear Regression to model the rise and decline of the infection.

Linear Regression

Linear regression is used to model the value of a dependent scale variable based on its linear relationship to one or more predictors. It estimates the coefficients of the linear equation, involving one or more independent variables that best predict the value of the dependent variable. For example, you can try to predict a salesperson's total yearly sales (the dependent variable) from independent variables such as age, education, and years of experience.
Implementation

  • An automotive industry group keeps track of the sales for a variety of personal motor vehicles. In an effort to be able to identify over- and underperforming models, you want to establish a relationship between vehicle sales and vehicle characteristics. We can use linear regression to identify models that are not selling well.
  • Is the number of games won by a basketball team in a season related to the average number of points the team scores per game? A scatter plot indicates that these variables are linearly related. The number of games won and the average number of points scored by the opponent are also linearly related. These variables have a negative relationship. As the number of games won increases, the average number of points scored by the opponent decreases. With linear regression, you can model the relationship of these variables. A good model can be used to predict how many games teams will win.
  • The Nambe Mills company has a line of metal tableware products that require a polishing step in the manufacturing process. To help plan the production schedule, the polishing times for 59 products were recorded, along with the product type and the relative sizes of these products, measured in terms of their diameters. We can use linear regression to determine whether the polishing time can be predicted by product size.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Cara Penulisan Data

Jenis

  

Penulisan yang salah

Seharusnya

Keterangan

angka

  

1000

1000

Ketikan 1000 tanpa tanda baca

Tanggal

  

2 des 06

2-Dec-06

Karena Cara penulisan bhs Inggris maka harus ditulis 2 dec 06

Huruf

  

1000

1000

Ketikan
'1000 jika angkadikehendaki sebagai huruf

Kalimat panjang

  

Pelatihan tentang

Pelatihan tentang peningkatan penguasaan materi pembelajaran

tulisan selalu disambung tanpa <enter> terlebih dahulu

  

  

peningkatan penguasaan

  

  

  

  

materi pembelajaran

  

  

Jarak Baris

  

data 1

  

Jika menulis data jangan ada jarak baris

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

data2

  

  

  

  

  

data1

  

  

  

  

data2

  

Syarat Data dalam Excel

No.

Uraian

Contoh

Hindarkan

1

Konsisten dalam penulisan

  

  

  

  

 

Konsisten terhadap prefix

Kec.

  

Kec. Xxxxx

  

 

  

Kota

  

Kec.Xxxxx

  

 

  

Kab.

  

  

  

 

Konsisten terhadap penulisan gelar

Nama Orang, Gelar

  

Gelar, Nama Orang

  

 

  

Achmad, H. SPd

  

H. Achmad, SPd

  

 

Konsisten terhadap Data

Lotim

  

Lotim

  

  

  

 Lotim

  

Lombok Timur

2

Pisahkan antara Gelar dan Nama atau sebutan (datanya)

  

  

  

  

 

  

SDN

1 Mataram

SDN 1 Mataram

  

 

  

Mataram

1-Nov-96

Mataram, 1-Nov-1996

  

  

  

Rp.

2,067,500

Rp. 2,067,500

3

Kelompokkan berdasarkan satuan yang sama

  

  

  

  

 

  

Kab

  

Kab

  

 

  

  

Kec

Kec

  

 

  

  

Kec

Kec

  

 

  

Kab

  

Kab

  

 

  

Program

  

Program

  

  

  

  

Kegiatan

Kegiatan

4

Jangan kaitkan kode dengan hal yang mudah berubah

  

  

  

5

Jangan Menyisipkan kode, tapi tambahkan

  

  

  

6

Pisahkan data dasar dengan data olahan

  

  

  

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